Also, this month’s report made it clear to me that the household survey is currently giving a much better picture of the employment situation than is the establishment survey. Usually, the establishment survey gives a better read on the monthly variation in employment; the structure of the survey gives less month-to-month volatility. 
Over the past year, the household survey has behaved quite consistently. This tells me that the monthly changes in the sample are not moving the overall jobs numbers. This stability tells me that the deterioration in the jobs situation is widespread: any random sample gives the same picture. In the fourth quarter, every major macro series took a nose dive. From housing to orders to industrial production, from exports to imports, to private consumption, to car sales, every series was falling at or above record rates. Yet somehow magically, the establishment survey stabilized. Yes, 500,000+ in monthly job losses are bad, but they did not continue to deteriorate over the quarter. The household survey took exactly the path I would have expected given the other indicators. And, the household survey is coming in (month after month) closer to my jobs model. I believe there will be major downward revisions to the establishment survey in the months to come.
What is your over/under for GDP in the first quarter?
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Too little attention paid to US demographics and the US household sector moving from the asset side to the liability side of the economy. This is an L not a V.
US growth should fall a bit faster in Q4 if inventories draw but GDP has the chance to surprise higher if trade collapses (possible) and inventories build again. I expect the mix to continue to be very deflationary for both headline and core.
Why should policy move to weaken real consumer income if balance sheets are stretched?
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